MY TAKE ON BAGAN PINANG

No matter how you look at it, no matter which way, vertically or
horizontally or from any perspective on the by-election in Bagan
Pinang its gonna be a WIN for BN.


It's not becos I'm rooting for BN, far from it but a fact is a fact.
Now let's face it, the trump card is not Isa Samad it's the POSTAL
votes that divides the winner from the loser.Bagan Pinang has 13,664 voters of whom 8,577 or 62.8 %
are Malays, 2,834 (20.7%) Indians, 1,498 (10.9%)
Chinese and 755 (5.5%) others.
This by-election here has 13664 votes, lets say 80% turnout
that's about11,614 casting their votes. Out of this 11614, about
4604 are postal votes!! They are voters from the army and the
assumption that at least 4000 votes for BN.
BN needs about 6300 votes to win and with 4000 postal votes
they need to have another 2300 from the remaining 3973
Malay voters.Roughly, about 50% from the ordinary Malay
voters. Hey, you got my drift huh? No?
Okay, when its assuming its gonna be a lot of IFs.
THIS IS MY FORECAST.YOU CAN AGREE OR DISAGREE
but please don't ask me how I come up with these figures.

If the turnout for the by election is 80% or =10932
votes cast.
BN securing 4000 postal votes +3793 Malay votes=7793
PAS getting =3139 votes
This is what gonna happen to the result of the Bagan Pinang
if my forecast has any truth in it.
So BN gonna win by 4654 votes majority!